The Raub报告- End of a Great Year

As we celebrate the end of a great year, let’s review the commercial real estate market, 和 con一边r this past year as the prologue to the New Year 2018. Let me begin with the re一边ntial market, though.

有趣的事情正在发生. 这里有个提示 365bet苹果客户端 销售量上升了, that is the dollar amount of 365bet苹果客户端 sales, but the number of 365bet苹果客户端s being sold/purchased is down! 是什么让? Well, 365bet苹果客户端 values are rising at a clip well above inflation, about 5 to 7% per year, every year. 加起来. But the number of 365bet苹果客户端s being sold is lower because new 365bet苹果客户端 buyers can’t qualify for the 365bet苹果客户端s they want. They either have to increase their down payment, pay down credit cards to improve their credit scores, 或者只是决定原地不动. 365bet苹果客户端 prices have gone up much faster than incomes to support the higher mortgage payments. 因此，买家陷入了困境. 卖家? They have to find a suitable new house to buy when they sell so if they can’t, they don’t put their 365bet苹果客户端 on the market.

我们看到了很多新的 多户家庭的 全市建设. 而我们可能会加1,000 new living units downtown each year, most of the new development is along IH-10, Westover Hills / Alamo Ranch, along North Loop 1604 和 up the I-35 Corridor 和 New Braunfels. The most reliable data shows we are adding about 8,800 new units to our supply this year. So, we may be overbuilding just a little, which will result in more rent concessions, 和 a drop in occupancy levels from 93% to maybe 91%, 但不会出现崩溃, just a little slump for the next year. Local 建设 lenders have already put on the brakes so, 因此, it is difficult to find new money to start 建设. This means we will be stabilized in rents 和 occupancy by 2019, 和 the next wave of new 建设 will begin. This 2 to 3 year cycle is very typical in the 多户家庭的 realm 和 this particular cycle will be muted, 几乎无法察觉.

零售 建设 is remaining tame while 建设 lenders are very cautious on approving new projects. Sure, 10,000 stores were closed in the U.S. this past year, but 14,000 new stores were opened to the commercial real estate market. 一如既往地, capitalism is survival of the fittest with the American consumer coming up the winner, 每一次. In San Antonio, we remain about 93% occupied with rents being flat.  This year 11 new centers were delivered 和 8 more are under 建设 with dozens planned. 我们必须提供这10个,000新房主和7,000 new apartment renters someplace to shop, 和, 当然, this then generates new jobs in the additional 600,000 square feet of new retail space.

工业 建设 has been pretty brisk the past few years with occupancy rates dropping from 93.从2013年的2%降至88%.3% now, with a good deal of new 建设 in the pipeline. TJX (TJ Maxx) is planning a new 1,500,000 square foot distribution center on S.E. Loop 410, 和 McCombs is planning new 建设 on IH-10 East. The Schertz industrial area is practically built out with more 建设 planned along the IH-35 corridor up to New Braunfels, which is also experiencing a building boom of its own. 2005年至2014年, developers delivered about 1-million square feet per year to the market, but from 2015 to 2017 it grew to 2-million square feet per year.

圣安东尼奥号 办公室 market has had net new absorption of an additional 665,000 square feet of new space this year, but deliveries have come to about 1-million square feet, so the occupancy rate has declined. 我们有1.18-million square feet of new 建设 underway at this time with about half pre-leased. 这包括400,000 square foot Frost Tower downtown, Credit Human’s new building at The Pearl, 和 several other new 办公室 buildings.

在 investment 一边, I often am asked by buyers to help them find new investments among San Antonio’s commercial real estate market 和 the surrounding area. 这是非常困难的. Owners are tending to hold on to their properties much longer, because they are unsure of what they would re-invest in, 如果他们卖了. Developers typically want to sell their properties within three years, so they can re-cycle their capital into another new deal, 然而, new 建设 costs have skyrocketed because of the increase in l和 prices, 建设 materials prices 和 in labor costs. This in turn has driven rents higher, because the rents have to make sense in these more expensive new projects. 因此, owners who are selling older properties, 也许建于2000年代, 或1990的, see the high cost per square foot to buy a new property, 和 decide against selling the property they already know 和 underst和. Thus, putting together new deals is a little more difficult than in past years.

总之, San Antonio’s commercial real estate market is in a great spot, 稳步增长, with only a smattering of overbuilding; no corrections or crashes on the horizon. 看来即将迎来一个美好的新年. 节日快乐!

——史蒂夫·劳布