劳布报告——过犹未尽

Mae West once said, “Too much of a good thing can 是美妙的!” That may be where commercial real estate is at this time in history. CRE has appreciated greatly over the past 8 years and all sectors are pretty fully valued at this point in the economic cycle.  如此如此, that the few people who may want to sell are asking very high prices – and getting them with multiple offers. 例子:一个新的, 地理位置非常好,在圣安东尼奥000平方英尺的零售中心, 100% leased to high quality tenants went on the market and received 75 indications of interest.  该公司目前的股价上限仅略高于7%. Multi-family is selling in the mid-5’s cap rates. Many are concerned that the rise in interest rates will reduce values, 因为债务成本侵蚀了现金流, 但到目前为止，情况并非如此.  So, 如果你有可投资的现金, or are going to have it from a sale of property – what are you gonna do with your money? 把钱投入股市? That’s pretty risky, because it, too, is very highly priced and volatile. Right now there is just a lot of money chasing fewer deals. Ten years ago the markets cratered because of excessive, risky debt. 现在，是否有太多的股权追逐交易?

不过就目前而言，前景依然光明. Many had forecast that 2017 would be the beginning of the next downturn, yours truly included.  The dramatic change of attitudes with the election of Donald Trump has moved that expectation of a downturn into 2019 or 2020.  RCLCO is a nationally respected real estate consulting firm.  Their commentary on where we are in the current economic cycle is as follows: Almost half of RCLCO Sentiment Survey respondents believe that the current expansionary phase of the cycle is likely to last for at least another two years. Most product types exhibited little cycle movement since six months ago, remaining in the stable phases of the real estate cycle.  Nearly half of respondents believe that retail is already in downturn, and almost half predict that multifamily will be in downturn within the next 12 months. 然而, these predictions have changed very little from the midyear 2017 survey. RCLCO’s outlook for generally positive though moderating, operating and investment performance through 2018 is consistent with the majority of survey respondents. We continue to have limited reason to fear an impending or sharp downturn in real estate performance, though there are some signs of moderate distress in certain property types and geographies.

This is all to say both nationally and locally, 我们显然处于平衡时期, where the increase in supply of property space is roughly matching the increase in demand for space; that is, 目前没有严重的过度建设.  We are undoubtedly very far along in this very long economic cycle, 但这并不意味着经济衰退迫在眉睫. Indeed, this cycle could last through the latter part of 2019. San Antonio is rated as being in equilibrium in every commercial property sector, with only apartment supply slightly ahead in the cycle and office slightly under-supplied in the development cycle.

Industrial is now the most sought after property type, and there are a lot of new projects being planned in San Antonio, 最多1个,000,000平方英尺的规格空间正在考虑中.  然而, it is quite possible that not all of this will actually find investment capital and get built.

零售 remains in flux because of the effects of “e-tailing” ,and e-commerce may have become too much of a good thing causing retail businesses to struggle. 然而，大多数企业都做到了 进行调整 生活将继续(或停止).  Construction has been adequate to meet the new demand as new homes are built at the edges of the metropolitan area, and older space in mature neighborhoods is still getting backfilled.  This means that occupancy rates and rents are remaining strong, as the “busted” retailers’ spaces are being backfilled by successful new ventures.

新建豪华公寓 是不是有点操之过急, and rent concessions are common but occupancies still remain good and are in the 93%’s; however, 新的许可证发放正在放缓.  The problem here is that new construction has gotten very expensive and rents are not increasing fast enough to make the numbers work.

Construction overall is becoming much more expensive in every category, 从家庭建筑到高层办公室.  The major components are all under price pressure because of the robust economy.  劳动力短缺是一个大问题, 随着年龄较大的高技能工人退休, and new entrants into the marketplace lack the skills and maturity of those they replace.  工资上涨.  材料需求量很大, especially when we consider the rebuilding needed in Texas after Hurricane Harvey last year.  价格也在上涨.  土地价值持续上涨, 财产税也在飙升, 以每年20%的速度增长.

Job growth is always the key to a healthy commercial real estate market and that is projected to remain very positive.  The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank economists forecast that Texas employment will grow at a 3.3% rate this year, raising their previous estimate of 2.8%. Last year Texas added 240,500 workers, a pretty good year, but this year the forecast is 407,900.  这意味着大约有33个,在圣安东尼奥净增了000个工作岗位, where we already enjoy an ultra-low unemployment rate of 3.4%，而全国平均水平为4%.1%.

So, 总之, 我们现在的处境很好, 也许, 好事过犹不及, 事实上, 是美妙的.